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25th August 2021

Death, taxes and patent risk

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Benjamin Franklin declared death and taxes as the only things certain in life. As we enter the fourth industrial revolution, patent risk can be added to the list. At a time where it is intangible assets that make up the bulk of enterprise value, it should be a boardroom priority to understand new sources of risks facing the organisation and to ensure that appropriate resources are deployed to manage and mitigate that risk. 

So what is patent risk and how best should it be communicated to the board?

We conducted a global survey as part of a study of how patent owners quantify and mitigate patent risk.

Read the Key Findings

What is patent risk?

Patent risk can be defined as the assessment and quantification of the uncertainty and undesirable outcomes associated with the ownership of patents and use of patented technology.

Patent risk can be broken down into a number of distinct categories:

  • Intrinsic risk – the reality that not every granted patent is valid and enforceable. It is hugely important to remember that this risk applies equally to your patents and those owned by others.
  • Environmental risk – the additional uncertainty caused by the constant change of patent laws around the world.
  • Innovation risk – the inherent uncertainty of bringing any new product or service to market. Also referred to as infringement risk, it is now virtually impossible to know whether your latest products infringe patents owned by others.
  • NPE risk – non-practising entities (NPEs) have been around for over 20 years, and while the legal environment has curtailed the worst excesses of this risk, it remains a permanent feature of the patent risk landscape. Immune from counter-assertion, NPEs merit their own category.
  • Assertion risk – reflecting the shift towards portfolio licensing, and away from disputes over individual patents. While this used to be captured within Innovation risk, it now dictates a different approach and is therefore given a class of its own.

This classification is derived from categories of patent risk identified in Edison in the Boardroom (Suzanne Harrison and Patrick Sullivan). While not intended to be prescriptive, classification of risk sits at the heart of consistent assessment and better communication.

The consequences of patent risk can be catastrophic. Patent disputes are expensive right from the start, not only in terms of legal bills but also the time of key personnel such as the CTO and CFO. Litigation risk also creates uncertainty with customers and investors.


A common way business risks are assessed is to identify all events that could impact that risk area and then score each event by combining both likelihood of occurrence and impact of the consequences. The same approach can be applied to patent risk.

Risk = Likelihood x Impact

By scoring each independently on a scale of 1-5, risk can be represented in a risk matrix, illustrated below:

The scores are Likelihood x Severity (25 being a risk which is both certain and catastrophic). This approach enables each of the patent risks to be ranked in a way that can readily be communicated. For example, for a hypothetical high tech company:

Intrinsic Risk might score 6, being the result of a Possible risk (the validity of patents are frequently challenged) with a Minor impact (reflecting that owners often have many patents relating to a single technology)

Assertion Risk might score 15. Most high tech companies end up with a suite of licenses and cross- licences (5 for Almost Certain) and the Severity can be moderate to major depending on prevailing royalty rates and the steps that the company has taken to mitigate this risk

The same approach can be taken for more granular assessment. For example, while many companies will have many competitors on their “threat list”, the increased availability of strategic patent intelligence makes it possible to quantify the relative threat from each (refer to Beyond Portfolio Optimisation, IAM 2020).

Risk Mitigation

Patent risk creates significant potential liabilities and it is the responsibility of the CEO and the board to ensure that the risk is managed and mitigated in-line with the organisation’s overall strategy and appetite for risk. It is the role of the legal and patent team to communicate and validate the mitigation strategies in each area.

Referring back to the risk categories, these are some of the available mitigation strategies:

Patent risk sits at the heart of IP strategy

It would be tempting to read the news of $1B+ patent awards against Cisco and Apple and believe that patent risk only hits large companies. This is not true. The hallmarks of a company with high risk are growing revenues and a small patent portfolio. It is this set of companies who are typically the disruptors and in the public eye. This puts a target on their back.

While it’s great to see the rise of IP strategy, there are still too many companies who fail to prioritise the risks patents pose. What’s missing is a better understanding in the boardroom of the magnitude of the risk and the proven strategies for mitigating that risk. There are still too many companies where patents are seen as a cost, without full appreciation of the value they deliver. In this context, value is not a hypothetical. It can be calculated and communicated using strategic patent intelligence. Companies who adopt this approach typically prioritise investment in patent portfolios, favouring this approach to dealing with patent litigation at an inconvenient time. Which is always.

As part of our research into the quantification and mitigation of patent risk, we conducted a global survey and the Key Findings are available to download here. A more detailed analysis of these findings will be published in IAM shortly and the full Cipher Report on Patent Risk will be published in November.

Read the Key Findings

Insights & Thought Leadership

LOT Network offers Cipher access to members 

LOT Network announces access to Cipher and the Universal Technology Taxonomy for all LOT patent owning members.
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TechInsights partners with Cipher to harness machine learning

The partnership will see ML used to leverage patent intelligence to reveal insight about the future direction of the semiconductor industry.
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Europe and Asia edging ahead for green hydrogen technology supremacy

The green hydrogen sector will see rapid technological innovation as the sector continues to scale and evolve. This is the lead finding of a joint report by Cipher and Fitch Solutions.
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BlackBerry Patent Sale Announced

Using the Cipher Universal Technology Taxonomy we have identified the top areas of technology innovation protected by the BlackBerry portfolio.
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IAM Strategy 300 2022

Nigel Swycher, CEO of Cipher and Steve Harris, CTO, are both named in the IAM Strategy 300 Global Leaders list for 2022.
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Universal Technology Taxonomy – Insight

Introducing the world’s first Universal Technology Taxonomy. This article sheds light on why Cipher launched the world’s first universal technology to classify patents and example analysis using UTT.
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With Cipher you can…

Portfolio Optimisation connecting cogs

Optimise your portfolio

Ensure you have the right portfolio to meet your strategic patenting objectives.

Read more
Competitive Intelligence

Gather competitor intelligence

Understand who’s doing what by automating patent to technology mapping.

Read more
Cross Licensing

Model cross licensing

Combine patent and revenue data to determine rational licensing outcomes.

Read more

Manage your budget

Justify patent budgets and communicate the impact of your investment.

Read more

Conduct due diligence

Automate manual reviews for efficient execution of M&A and licensing transactions.

Read more

Tackle inbound patent assertion

Be prepared with evidence to create a fast and effective threat assessment.

Read more

Benchmark your portfolio

Assess your portfolio in comparison to other owners through your technology lens.

Read more

Monetise your portfolio

Identify opportunities to create value through licensing or sale of patent assets.

Read more
Technology Trends icon

Predict technology trends

Track new technologies and discover the unknown owners of future innovation.

Read more
Risk Mitigation

Create Risk Mitigation Strategies

Understand the materiality of your threats to define your risk mitigation strategy.

Read more
We had a level of interest following our webinars last week showcasing Cipher Certified. But what is it exactly? (Clue: you can build your own classifiers). And did you know that training from Cipher experts is included? #patentanalysis #patentdata
Listen to a 30-second snippet of our latest podcast – our guest was Ken Seddon, CEO of @TheLOTNET. via @YouTube
If you weren’t able to make our Cipher Certified webinar earlier this week, you can now access the full recording. Build Your Own View of the Technology Landscape and its supporting material are here:
“What @TheLOTNET effectively is, it’s a nonprofit organisation. It’s a community of companies who have agreed to take responsibility for the very problem [they are] causing.” What problem is our guest Ken Seddon referring to? Find out: #businesspodcast
We’re repeating Tuesday’s webinar – Cipher Certified: Build your own view of the Technology Landscape – at the earlier time of 9am BST tomorrow (30 Jun). Take 45 minutes to discover how you could choose your own classifiers on our platform:
Our guest in episode 6 in the current series of the #CipherVision podcast is Ken Seddon, CEO of @TheLOTNET. Take 20 minutes to listen to ‘Managing PAE Patent Risk’ and let us know your thoughts: #patentligitation #businesspodcast
‘Cipher Certified: Build your own view of the Technology Landscape’ is tomorrow’s webinar at 8am PT (4pm BST). Cipher experts will show you how to build your custom taxonomy on our platform. Register for tomorrow or for the repeat on Thursday (9am BST):
If you’re not able to make our webinars next week (see our timeline), you can read all the details about Cipher Certified on our dedicated page. Training from Cipher experts is included: #patentanalysis #patentdata
Just what is Cipher Certified? Watch our short video to find out how you can take control of your classifiers: #patents #DataAnalytics
Our next webinar, Cipher Certified: Build your own view of the Technology Landscape, will show you how to build your custom taxonomy. Register now for either Tue 28 or Thu 30 Jun:

Improve your patent strategy now

Speak to the Cipher team today.